Super El Niño forecast to be strongest on record, threatening floods and hunger

A rapidly intensifying El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record, with NOAA projecting a nearly 70% chance it will surpass the 1982-83 event. Forecasters expect sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to exceed 2.5°C above average, potentially peaking around 4°C in December Source: CNN, Gizmodo. This 'super' El Niño, though not an official classification, is unfolding on a planet already warmed by about 1.4-1.5°C, amplifying its potential impacts Source: CNA.

Coastal threats

California faces a heightened risk of record-breaking sea levels and coastal flooding. Mark Merrifield of Scripps Institution of Oceanography said, "We're expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast associated with this event" Source: LA Times, Gizmodo. The combination of thermal expansion, high tides, and storm waves could cause erosion and saltwater intrusion Source: LA Times. The Guardian reports a 70-100% chance of above-average rainfall along the California coast, increasing flood risks Source: The Guardian.

Global impacts

The Amazon rainforest may be pushed toward a tipping point, with scientists warning that drought and wildfires could accelerate ecosystem collapse Source: Gizmodo. The World Food Programme estimates that 50 million people could face acute hunger by the end of next year, particularly in Central and South America and southern Africa Source: The Guardian. In Southeast Asia, farmers like Surachai Parunram are bracing for severe heat and drought, with experts noting this event is unprecedented in a warming world Source: CNA.

Uncertain outcomes

While forecasts are dire, experts caution that impacts are not guaranteed. Daniel Swain noted, "El Niño is never going to guarantee any particular outcome in any California winter," but a strong event shifts odds toward wetter conditions Source: The Guardian. The full effects will depend on the event's strength and regional factors.