El Niño Poised to Become Historic, Threatening Global Weather and Food Security

The current El Niño event is rapidly intensifying and is now forecast to become one of the strongest on record, with an 81% chance of reaching 'very strong' status between October and December, according to the US Climate Prediction Center. If realized, this 'super El Niño' would rival the historic events of 1997-98 and 2015-16, with far-reaching consequences for global weather, agriculture, and fisheries.

What the forecasts show

Sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region are already 2°C above average, meeting the threshold for a super El Niño Source: Gizmodo. The US National Weather Service gives a 97% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through spring 2027 Source: The Guardian. While strong El Niños often bring above-average rainfall to the southern US, including California, they also increase the risk of heat waves and droughts elsewhere.

Global impacts at risk

• Agriculture: Philippine rice output could collapse by 30% Source: SCMP, and the World Bank warns rice yields may fall by a fifth to a half in South Asia and East Africa Source: Al Jazeera.
• Fisheries: Peru has canceled its anchovy fishing season, and Indian mackerel are expected to be smaller Source: Wired.
• Humanitarian crises: Aid groups warn of flooding and hunger from Somalia to Pakistan Source: Al Jazeera. In Andhra Pradesh, India, a severe monsoon deficit of 42% is already reported Source: The Hindu.

Mitigation via geoengineering

A new study in Science Advances suggests that marine cloud brightening could potentially weaken a developing super El Niño, though the technique remains highly controversial and unproven at scale Source: CNN, Wired.