
A SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to crash into the Moon on August 5, 2025, near the Einstein Crater. The impact will be observable from Earth and offers a unique chance to study artificial impacts and space debris hazards.
The spent upper stage, launched January 15, 2025, carried Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost and ispace's Hakuto-R landers. Measuring roughly 39 feet long and 13 feet wide, the 4,000-kilogram hollow shell will slam into the lunar surface at over 5,400 mph. Despite its size, the impact is expected to create a crater 66 to 98 feet wide and kick up a dust plume stretching miles above the surface Source: Engadget. Sources slightly disagree on the exact impact time: Engadget reports 2:35 a.m. ET, while Gizmodo states 2:44 a.m. ET Source: Gizmodo.
Observability depends on location. The crash will be most visible in South America and low-to-mid latitude North America, where the Moon will be high in the sky in complete darkness. Astronomers are encouraged to watch with ground-based telescopes Source: Gizmodo. The paper, authored by Bill Gray and colleagues, provides detailed predictions. Notably, NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will not be in position to observe, but the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter may gather data Source: Gizmodo.
This event highlights the growing issue of artificial space debris and offers a real-time experiment for lunar science.
“It's a chance for astronomers to observe an artificial impact in real time.”
“Both professional and amateur astronomers are encouraged to attempt observations of this event.”
“modeling suggests it will be crushed on impact, punching a new 66-to-98-foot-wide crater into the lunar surface.”