CIS barometer shows PSOE rising despite corruption cases, widening gap with PP

The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) July barometer, published on Wednesday, shows the PSOE gaining 1.7 points to reach 33% of vote estimates, despite a wave of corruption convictions and ongoing judicial investigations. The Partido Popular (PP) falls 2 points to 25.1%, widening the gap between the two main parties to nearly eight points Source: lavanguardia Source: abces.

Key figures

• PSOE: 33% (+1.7 points) — the only major party that rises in this estimate Source: euronewses.
• PP: 25.1% (−2 points).
• Vox: 15.3% (−0.5 points).
• Sumar: 6.1% (−0.3 points).
• ERC rises to 2.7% (+0.8 points), while SALF (Se Acabó La Fiesta) climbs to 2.6% and overtakes Podemos (2.5%) Source: elconfidencial Source: elmundoes.

Context and reactions

The fieldwork was conducted from July 1 to 6, just after the 24-year prison sentence for former minister José Luis Ábalos and the conviction of Koldo García. The period also included the imputation of Guardia Civil director Mercedes González in the 'Caso Leire' and David Sánchez's conviction Source: infobae. Despite these scandals, the socialist vote share increased. Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, attacked the CIS, calling it "the corruption desbocada de Sánchez" and stating "se estudiará en los libros de Historia" Source: infobae.

Discrepancies with private polls

The CIS results contrast sharply with private polling firms such as 40dB and Gad3, which project a clear advantage for the right bloc (PP+Vox) over the left Source: euronewses. The CIS methodology under José Félix Tezanos has been repeatedly criticised for overestimating left-wing support, though it performed accurately in the 2023 general election.