OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast for third straight month

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 19% to 0.78 million barrels per day (mb/d), marking the third consecutive monthly reduction. Total demand is now expected to average 105.94 mb/d, down from 106.13 mb/d in June. Source: Infobae

Reasons for revision

• The downgrade is attributed to geopolitical disruptions including the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing high price volatility. Source: Diario Libre
• Chinese oil imports fell 17% month-on-month in May to 7.8 mb/d, a 29% drop year-on-year, as trade flows were disrupted. Source: El Nacional

Supply outlook

• Non-OPEC+ supply is expected to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, led by Brazil, US, Canada, and Argentina. Source: Diario Libre
• OPEC forecasts a full market recovery by 2027, with demand rising nearly 2 mb/d to 107.8 mb/d. Source: El Nacional

Market reaction

• Oil prices fell sharply in June after a ceasefire and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but have since risen again as fighting resumed. The OPEC reference basket averaged $89.75/barrel in June, down $24.80 from May. Source: El Nacional