ADB cuts Asia growth forecast to 4.9% due to Iran war impact

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down its 2026 growth forecast for 43 developing economies in Asia and the Pacific to 4.9%, from 5.1% predicted in April, citing prolonged disruptions from the war in Iran. The conflict, which began on February 28 between the US and Israel against Iran, led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of global fuel trade once passed—triggering an energy crisis in the import-dependent region. Source: infobae

Although a June pact between Tehran and Washington moderated oil prices, the ADB warns that supply chain and energy costs continue to hamper economic activity. Southeast Asia is among the hardest hit, with the ADB lowering its sub-regional forecast to 4.6% and cutting growth projections for the Philippines to 3.8% and Cambodia to 4.1%. By contrast, China's outlook remained unchanged at 4.5%, supported by strong exports and infrastructure investment despite weak private consumption. Source: hoydo

India's growth is now seen at 6.6% for 2026, down from 6.9%, while the ADB maintains a 5.1% forecast for 2027 as pressures ease. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.0%, but raised China's projection to 4.6% and kept India at 6.4%—one-tenth lower than before. Source: infobae