Prediction markets soar amid World Cup, face scrutiny over fraud and lawsuits

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has driven prediction market volumes to record highs, with Kalshi seeing over $31 billion in June and Polymarket hitting $10.8 billion, reversing earlier declines Source: cnbc. The surge has also sparked controversies over market manipulation and regulatory crackdowns.

Spotify streaming fraud

A suspicious spike in streams for Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" on Spotify, which briefly hit No. 1, was flagged by trader Caleb Davies as a statistical anomaly Source: wired. Spotify confirmed the removal of over 500,000 artificial streams Source: gizmodo. Kalshi had already paid out bets on Todd's song, raising questions about market integrity. Kalshi is investigating Source: thenextweb.

Legal battles mount

Kalshi faces lawsuits from multiple states over sports betting. Massachusetts amended its lawsuit, alleging Kalshi targets underage users Source: cointelegraph. Michigan issued a temporary restraining order, fining Kalshi $120,000 per day for non-compliance Source: cointelegraph. The CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction, while states push back Source: cointelegraph.

Meta enters the fray

Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app, Arena, which will use play money instead of real bets Source: npr. The move highlights growing mainstream interest.

• World Cup betting drove $9.5 billion in sports volume on Kalshi and $5.3 billion on Polymarket in June Source: cointelegraph.
• Spotify asked both Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo from their sites Source: thenextweb.