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Meta is developing a prediction market app called 'Arena' to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi. The app, confirmed by multiple reports citing internal sources, is being built by a small team under CEO Mark Zuckerberg and is considered a top priority Source: Gizmodo. Arena will operate independently of Meta's existing platforms like Facebook and Instagram, though Meta plans to funnel users from those social networks to the new app Source: CNBC.
Unlike existing prediction markets that use real cash, Arena will initially rely on a video-game-style points system. Users will receive a daily virtual allotment of 'play money' to wager on event outcomes Source: NPR. However, Meta has not ruled out introducing real-money betting in the future Source: Euronews. This cautious approach may allow Meta to navigate the complex regulatory landscape while testing demand.
The prediction market sector has exploded, with monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reaching $24 billion by April 2026 Source: Euronews. However, the industry faces scrutiny: a U.S. soldier was charged with insider trading for using classified information to win over $400,000 on Polymarket Source: CoinTelegraph. The CFTC has proposed new rules, and dozens of lawsuits over legality are pending Source: NPR. Meta's entry could accelerate regulatory clarity but also invites criticism given its history of copying competitors' features .
“Meta plans to release AI-powered prediction market app, documents show. The new app, which has been codenamed 'Antwerp' and 'FBForecast,' will use Llama to automatically generate questions from trending topics.”
“Referred to internally as 'Arena,' Zuckerberg’s planned prediction markets app is reportedly being built by a small team within Meta and would operate separately from the company’s other apps.”
“Monthly trading volume has since surged from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to around $24 billion in April 2026, overtaking the roughly $14 billion wagered monthly through legal or traditional US sportsbooks.”
Meta previously launched a prediction market app called Forecast in 2020, which was shut down in 2022 due to the high operational cost of manual question curation Source: NPR. Arena reportedly aims to solve this by using Meta's AI model Llama to automatically generate questions from trending topics and resolve markets in near real-time Source: NPR.
“A soldier allegedly making more than $400,000 on a Polymarket event contract related to the capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro... the soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, is scheduled to go to trial in December.”
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