PP's Andalusian Majority Eroded, PSOE Could Recover in General Elections

A post-electoral survey by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) reveals that the Partido Popular (PP) lost its absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament by two seats in the 17 May elections, while the PSOE would significantly narrow the gap in a hypothetical general election with Pedro Sánchez as candidate.

Voter Transfers

The PP's ability to attract voters from other parties has declined. In 2022, 15.6% of PSOE voters switched to the PP; in 2026 that figure fell to 6.9%. Similarly, the inflow from Vox dropped from 31.4% to 24%. Meanwhile, the PP lost more voters to Vox (from 7.9% to 11.3%). Source: El Confidencial The PP retains 77.4% of its voters, while PSOE loyalty improved to 60.8%, though still losing a quarter of its left flank to Adelante Andalucía.

General Election Prospects

If general elections were held today, the PSOE would trail the PP by only three points in Andalusia (22.8% vs 25.6%), compared to a 20-point gap in the recent regional vote. Source: El Mundo The recovery would come from left-wing concentration: 31.5% of Adelante Andalucía voters and 25.6% of Por Andalucía voters would switch to PSOE. PP loyalty would drop to 73.6%, with 9.9% defecting to Vox. Vox would gain over 173,000 PP voters, reaching 12.9% support. Source: El Mundo Adelante Andalucía would collapse to just 5.7% of its regional vote.