Extreme heat threatens Europe's economic growth and productivity

Europe's record-breaking June heatwave is causing substantial economic damage, with new research warning that extreme heat is becoming a structural economic risk rather than a temporary inconvenience. The Allianz Group study projects cumulative GDP losses of up to 7% in some countries by 2030 Source: The Guardian.

Productivity losses by sector

• Outdoor sectors like construction, agriculture, and manufacturing are hardest hit. The International Labour Office expects the largest loss of working hours in these sectors by 2030 Source: The Guardian.
• Sectors unable to provide protected work environments represent 27% of the UK economy and 35% of western Europe's Source: The Guardian.

Country-by-country impact

• France could lose $240 billion; Italy $147 billion; Spain $120 billion Source: The Guardian.
• Germany faces losses of $131 billion between 2026 and 2030, with possible GDP losses of up to 3% Source: DW.

The productivity threshold

"Above 30 degrees, productivity drops by 3% per degree, while energy costs rise by 1.2% per degree," said Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz co-author Source: DW. A four-day heatwave could reduce quarterly productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points in the UK and 2 percentage points in western Europe Source: The Guardian. Increased sick leave adds to the burden — rising by 3.5% on days over 30°C Source: DW.

"Extreme heat costs all of us as workers, as businesses, as taxpayers," Utermöhl told The Guardian, urging policymakers to treat heat as a permanent economic challenge rather than a seasonal issue.