AI Analysis Suggests Three Mass Extinctions Were Gradual Declines

A new artificial intelligence model, OneStrata, has analyzed millions of fossils spanning 540 million years and suggests that three of Earth's five major mass extinctions may have been gradual declines rather than sudden catastrophes. The research, presented on October 12, 2026, at a meeting of the Geological Society of America and covered by Nature, challenges long-held assumptions about the nature of these events. Source: Gizmodo

The AI Model

OneStrata, developed by a team led by Shuzhong Shen of Nanjing University, uses a transformer architecture similar to large language models (LLMs) to analyze fossil distribution patterns in rock layers. Source: Infobae The model was trained on a global database called OneStratigraphy, which includes 31,044 stratigraphic sections, 183,514 species, and approximately 2.85 million fossil records, along with 449 high-precision dates. Source: Gizmodo This allowed the AI to reconstruct the evolution of over 110,000 marine species with a temporal resolution estimated at around a thousand years. Source: Gizmodo

Key Findings

• The AI identified two sharp biodiversity collapses: the end-Ordovician extinction (about 444 million years ago) and the end-Permian extinction (about 252 million years ago). Source: Gizmodo
• The other three traditionally recognized "Big Five" extinctions—the Late Devonian, end-Triassic, and end-Cretaceous—appeared as weaker or more gradual global declines spread over extended periods. Source: Gizmodo
• This suggests that the end-Cretaceous event, which wiped out the non-avian dinosaurs, may not have been as sudden as previously believed, though the asteroid impact remains a key factor. Source: Gizmodo

Implications

The findings are preliminary but raise important questions about how scientists reconstruct Earth's past. The model's ability to process vast datasets more efficiently than traditional methods could transform paleontological research. Source: Infobae However, the results highlight that some catastrophic events may have been more complex than simple, sudden disasters.