Juan Eslava Galán on Cold War Legacy, Spanish Sovereignty, and Future Geopolitics

The Cold War never ended; it has merely mutated into a commercial conflict. This is the central thesis of historian Juan Eslava Galán in his new book, La Guerra Fría contada para escépticos. While the ideological clash between the US and USSR formally concluded with the fall of the Berlin Wall, Galán argues that the geopolitical rivalry persists, now driven by economic competition rather than direct military confrontation. He predicts that future power will shift toward China, followed potentially by India and Brazil, noting that capitalism currently thrives best under less democratic regimes.

Spain’s Strategic Position

Galán offers a critical view of Spain’s post-war trajectory. He asserts that since the 1953 Pact of Madrid, Spain has functioned as a satellite of the United States. This status was cemented when Franco ceded sovereignty to establish American military bases in exchange for international recognition. Galán highlights that this dependency limits Spanish autonomy, particularly regarding North African affairs. He cites the 1957 Ifni War as evidence: Washington prohibited Franco from using US-supplied arms, prioritizing its relationship with Morocco. Consequently, Galán predicts that in any future dispute involving Ceuta or Melilla, the US will side with Rabat.

Historical Context and Disagreements

Sources provide specific details on Spain’s nuclear ambitions. ABC reports that scientists were convinced they could build an atomic bomb under 'Project Islero', but the initiative was slowed under Adolfo Suárez and abandoned under Felipe González Source: ABC. Regarding the broader historical narrative, El Confidencial emphasizes the rapid decay of current empires, comparing the next 50 years to the Roman Empire’s three-century decline, while stressing that AI will be the decisive factor in future hegemony Source: El Confidencial.

The Reaction

Galán remains skeptical of communist systems, stating that all such regimes have failed in practice, citing the lack of defections to the East during the Berlin Wall era Source: El Confidencial. He also characterizes Spain’s transition to democracy not as a 'transición' but as a 'transacción' Source: El Español. Despite these grim assessments, he maintains a degree of optimism about the reduced likelihood of global nuclear war, though he warns of an Orwellian future of surveillance.