Spanish election race tightens as right-wing bloc maintains lead

With just over a month until Spain's general election on 29 November, the campaign is intensifying as parties finalise their candidate lists. The deadline for registering candidacies is Monday, 26 October, with the official lists to be published on Wednesday Source: La Vanguardia. The latest polls show the right-wing bloc of PP and Vox maintaining a lead, but the gap is narrowing.

The state of the race

A Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo gives the PP 30.6% of the vote and Vox 19.9%, with the combined right-wing bloc projected to win between 191 and 200 seats, most likely 196 Source: El Mundo (ES). The PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, stands at 26.1%, with the left-wing Frente Amplio and Podemos polling around 11% combined. However, the PSOE has gained ground in the last week, cutting the gap with the PP from 6.2 to 4.5 points Source: El Mundo (ES). A separate poll by SocioMétrica for El Español gives the right-wing bloc a larger majority of 200 seats, with a 99% probability of an absolute majority Source: El Español.

Key campaign issues

• Housing is the top concern for voters across the political spectrum, with eight out of ten Spaniards holding the central government responsible Source: El Confidencial.
• Trust in the postal vote is sharply divided: 91.5% of Vox voters and 62.2% of PP voters distrust the system, while only 11.8% of PSOE voters share that view Source: El Confidencial.
• Immigration and insecurity are the main mobilising issues for right-wing voters, while housing drives the left Source: abces.

Disagreements among sources

While most polls agree on a right-wing victory, the projected size of the majority varies. El Mundo's Sigma Dos poll sees a narrower lead (196 seats), while El Español's SocioMétrica poll forecasts a more comfortable 200-seat majority. The PSOE's internal tracking suggests they have already mobilised 10% of abstentionist voters Source: ABC, but other analysts note that left-wing voters remain less energised than their right-wing counterparts Source: abces.