Colombia Faces Energy Rationing Risk Amid El Niño and High Costs

Colombia’s electricity system is at risk of rationing as the government warns that accumulated delays in new energy projects have reduced the country's margin of safety ahead of a severe dry season. Minister of Mines and Energy María Nohemí Arboleda revealed during a Senate hearing that the system nearly suspended service during critical peak hours, stating that recovering full supply sovereignty will take four years. She noted that while current hydraulic capacity resembles the 2015–2016 El Niño period, demand has surged differently; national consumption grew over 6%, with Caribbean peaks reaching 12.7%.

Rising Costs and Thermal Pressure

The convergence of low reservoir levels and high demand forces greater reliance on thermal generation, driving costs up. Projections indicate electricity prices could exceed $800 per kWh for generation-only contracts during the Christmas season. This spike pressures industrial and commercial sectors, which typically see a 4% to 7.5% demand increase year-end. Industry leaders like Enel and Grupo Energía Bogotá (GEB) acknowledge the system can respond but highlight a lack of operational margin. GEB President Juan Ricardo Ortega criticized historical failures to contract gas regasification timely, leaving the country exposed to expensive fuel imports.

Proposed Solutions and Disagreements

While the government emphasizes long-term project execution, private sector experts propose immediate efficiency measures. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates that better utilizing existing grids could lower bills by 7–8%, whereas Erco Energía suggests energy communities could cut corporate costs by 20–35%. However, a key disagreement persists on infrastructure: GEB advocates revisiting hydroelectric and coal investments, arguing Colombia is "a country of clouds and water," while others push for solar-storage hybrids and regulatory security to attract capital. Without these interventions, December remains a pivotal month for determining conditions into 2027.