Gulf War Disrupts Energy Markets as Ormuz Reopens and Bab al-Mandeb Threatens

Middle Eastern oil exports have surged to 24.6 million barrels per day, defying expectations of a prolonged supply collapse following the February outbreak of war between Israel, the US, and Iran Source: El Mundo. This recovery hinges on the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where 80% of the region’s crude now flows through complex naval operations involving "ghost tankers" that disable tracking systems to evade Iranian detection Source: El Mundo.

Despite increased crude output, downstream fuel prices remain high due to logistical bottlenecks and risk premiums. The US Navy provides aerial and naval protection for these vessels, which pay captains up to $150,000 in bonuses to navigate the hazardous route at night Source: El Mundo. Meanwhile, markets face a new threat from the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, where Houthi rebels in Yemen are advancing toward key ports like Moka and Perim Source: La Vanguardia. A blockade here could add $20 per barrel to oil prices, potentially pushing them toward $150–$200 if combined with existing tensions Source: Portafolio.

Financial institutions are adapting to this "new normal." HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery estimates that Gulf states could become independent of the Hormuz chokepoint within five years by investing in alternative land and sea routes Source: infobae. Economists note that global supply flexibility—via strategic reserves and increased production from non-Gulf nations—has prevented total market failure Source: El Confidencial. However, the conflict continues to impact domestic economies; in the US, high gasoline prices are emerging as a critical issue ahead of the midterm elections Source: CNN, while countries like the Dominican Republic face severe adaptation challenges due to their reliance on imports Source: Listín Diario.