Met Office warns of strongest El Niño in over a century

The UK Met Office has warned that the El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in over a century, with Pacific sea surface temperatures expected to peak at more than 3°C above normal Source: BBC. This 'unprecedented' event could make 2027 the hottest year on record globally Source: Al Jazeera.

Global impacts

El Niño typically triggers droughts and wildfires in Australia and Indonesia, while increasing flood and landslide risks in Peru and Ecuador Source: BBC. The Met Office's Adam Scaife warns of 'really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific' Source: Al Jazeera. The event is also expected to bring wetter, stormier conditions to northwestern Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter Source: BBC.

US winter outlook

In the US, a strong El Niño typically shifts the jet stream south, leading to wetter, cooler conditions in the southern tier and drier, warmer conditions in the north Source: CNN. Forecasters give a nearly 70% chance that this El Niño becomes the strongest on record by year-end Source: CNN.

UK infrastructure concerns

Britain's railway system, already stressed by extreme heat this summer, is preparing for more extreme weather. Two trains derailed within 24 hours during August's heatwave Source: The Guardian. Experts urge Network Rail to adapt infrastructure for higher temperatures and more intense rainfall Source: The Guardian.

Disagreement on Europe's summer heat

While some media have linked Europe's recent deadly heatwaves to El Niño, Euronews reports that the phenomenon is unlikely to impact Europe's 2026 summer, and the recent heat is not a result of El Niño Source: Euronews. This contrasts with the Met Office's forecast of wetter, stormier conditions later in the year Source: BBC.