A technical report by Ingeniar Risk Intelligence, dated August 14, estimates direct physical damages from the August 10 earthquake in Colombia at $30 billion (US$9.5 billion), a figure President Abelardo de la Espriella cited in his first address. The estimate covers five departments: Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Risaralda, Quindío, and Caldas.
The analysis used CAPRA-ROBOT software, integrating seismic hazard models and vulnerability functions. The total exposed value in the five departments is $453 billion, with 72% in buildings and 28% in infrastructure. The event corresponds to a 40-year return period, implying a 20% exceedance probability in 10 years and 70% in 50 years.
The report aims to establish a baseline for insurance and reinsurance impact analysis. President de la Espriella noted the figure does not include indirect damages, lost profits, or the higher cost of rebuilding to seismic-resistant standards.
