Treasury yields ease ahead of jobs data and Jackson Hole

US Treasury yields eased slightly on Thursday as investors positioned ahead of key jobs data and the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. The benchmark 10-year yield was 2 basis points lower at 4.645%, while the 30-year yield slipped to 5.161% Source: CNBC. Markets are on edge after the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high last week, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to announce a doubling of long-term debt buybacks Source: CNBC.

The bond market's message

Long-term yields have surged due to a combination of inflation concerns, the Iran war, and worries about the US fiscal position, with national debt surpassing $40 trillion Source: CNA, The Guardian. The Treasury's intervention to cap yields has been met with skepticism, as yields rebounded after an initial drop Source: CNA, The Guardian. Analysts warn that "attempting to cap yields at present feels like running up a down escalator" Source: El País.

Jackson Hole stakes

Warsh's Friday speech is seen as a critical test. He has signaled reluctance to provide forward guidance, which could inject volatility into markets Source: The Guardian. Bank of America strategists warn that if Warsh focuses on structural themes, markets could interpret it as dovish, potentially pushing long-end yields to 5.5% or higher Source: CNBC.

Global ripple effects

Rising US yields are affecting global markets, with the Bank of Japan expected to raise rates in September, according to a Reuters poll Source: CNA. The dollar is "on edge," and higher yields are pressuring stocks, with the S&P 500 ending last week lower Source: CNBC, CNN. The bond market's unease poses a risk to the stock market's AI-driven rally Source: CNN.