The Panama Canal has reduced the maximum draft for Neopanamax locks to 48.5 feet (14.78 meters) as of August 15, the third in a series of five scheduled adjustments, in response to a strong El Niño that could last until 2027 . The canal authority says daily transits remain unchanged at 36–37, but the reduced draft forces ships to carry less cargo, raising costs for shippers .
Auction prices for transit slots have soared. A supertanker paid US$4.6 million to skip the queue, surpassing the nearly US$4 million paid earlier for a container ship . Average auction prices for August reached US$1.1 million, more than 16 times last year's average, with individual slots hitting US$3.78 million for Neopanamax and US$2.63 million for Panamax . Argus data shows some Neopanamax ships have waited up to 11 days for a slot .
The drought stems from an intensifying El Niño, which has also disrupted European rivers . Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict has pushed Asian buyers to increase US Gulf purchases, boosting demand for the canal . The canal plans to reduce draft to 44 feet (13.41 meters) by April–May 2027, the minimum for Neopanamax, but does not foresee transit restrictions . Lake Gatún levels are below historical averages and expected to drop further .
While the canal authority states no transit reductions are planned , Argus warns that lower water levels could reduce the number of transit slots later this year .