Oil prices steady as US-Iran Hormuz deal hopes fade

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday after jumping 5% the previous day, as uncertainty persisted over when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen. Brent crude was flat at $87.72 a barrel, while US benchmark crude was unchanged at $82.13 Source: AP News. The rise follows a dip last week when hopes for a US-Iran deal briefly buoyed markets Source: Al Jazeera.

The deadlock

Iran has set conditions for reopening the strait, including an end to US attacks, lifting sanctions, and compensation for war damages Source: CNN. Tehran insists on controlling the waterway and charging tolls, which Washington rejects Source: Euronews. President Trump said the US is "low-keying" negotiations and relying on economic pressure Source: CNBC. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not in direct talks with the US Source: CNBC.

Market impact

• Brent surged 5% on Monday, swinging between $72 and $102 last month Source: AP News.
• Analysts warn of a potential "tipping point" if the closure persists, with prices possibly reaching $120-140 per barrel by Q4 Source: CNBC.
• US petrol prices fell nine cents last week to $4.00 a gallon, but could surge again Source: Al Jazeera.
• Shipping through the strait has collapsed, with only 8-15 vessels crossing daily versus about 130 before the conflict Source: Al Jazeera.

What's next

Traders are watching for tangible evidence of a deal, such as verified tanker movements Source: CNA. Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery and Houthi threats in the Red Sea add to supply risks Source: CNA. The main event for Wall Street this week is Wednesday's US inflation report Source: AP News.