Iran war and economy weigh on Trump's midterm prospects

With less than 100 days until the 2026 midterm elections, President Donald Trump faces mounting discontent over the ongoing war in Iran and economic pressures, even among his Republican base. A new CNN poll puts Trump's overall approval at 34%, matching his post-January 6 low, and finds that only 19% of Republicans are enthusiastic about his term Source: The Guardian; Ground News.

The Iran war

Fox Business commentator Larry Kudlow argues that victory in Iran will be the deciding factor for the midterms, claiming Trump is "full speed ahead on the battlefield" and that a win will lower energy prices Source: Fox Business. However, polling paints a different picture: 45% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say the war's toll hasn't been worth it, and 40% disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran, up from 30% in March Source: CNN. Only 28% of all Americans approve of Trump's actions in Iran Source: The Guardian.

Economic anxiety

Economic concerns dominate, with 74% of Americans saying rising gas prices have caused hardship Source: The Guardian. Among Republicans, 64% say high gas prices have caused at least moderate hardship, and 56% say Trump hasn't gone far enough to reduce prices Source: CNN. Experts say the administration has few tools left to address inflation before the election, as the Iran war and tariffs continue to drive costs Source: LA Times. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, disappointing Trump who had pushed for a cut Source: LA Times.

Base disillusionment

Even Trump's once-solid base shows cracks. The CNN poll found that 30% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents now disapprove of Trump. Dissatisfaction extends to his priorities: 45% say he is not in touch with ordinary Americans' problems, up from 34% in January Source: CNN. Large majorities of Americans believe Trump isn't focused on top issues (75%) and places himself above the country's needs (66%) Source: The Guardian.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment, but Trump asserted the economy is strong, saying, "We have things going on never seen before" Source: LA Times.