Amazon fires hit historic low in 2025, El Niño may reverse gains

Forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon fell to an all-time low in 2025, with only 3.1 million hectares burned, the smallest area since records began in 1985, according to MapBiomas Source: euronewsen. The decline is a sharp reversal from 2024's record fires, driven by cooler La Niña conditions, a delayed rainy season, and proactive community efforts Source: BBC. However, experts warn that a potential "super El Niño" later in 2026 could extend the dry season and increase fire risk Source: euronewsen.

Key figures

• 3.1 million hectares burned in the Brazilian Amazon in 2025, down from 30 million hectares across all of Brazil in 2024 Source: euronewsen, BBC.
• The drop is 31% below the historical average, but researchers caution it is not yet an established trend Source: BBC.

Outlook

• A 62% chance of El Niño forming by summer 2026, with a one-in-three chance of a strong event dubbed "super El Niño" Source: euronewsen.
• In the Amazon, this could bring an extended dry season and greater fire risk, potentially reversing progress Source: euronewsen, BBC.