Amazon fires in Brazil hit historic low in 2025, but El Niño threatens

The Brazilian Amazon recorded its smallest burned area since 1985 in 2025, with 3.1 million hectares scorched — an 80.3% drop from 2024's record 15.8 million hectares, according to MapBiomas. The sharp decline followed a late rainy season that limited the window for agricultural burning, and a 'psychological factor' among communities fearful of a repeat of the previous year's devastating fires Source: Euronews. Deforestation also fell, reducing fuel for fires Source: Euronews.

Recurrence risks

Despite the improvement, the report warns that 31.6% of previously burned Amazon areas reignite within two years, hindering forest recovery and increasing fire intensity Source: Infobae. Over the past 41 years, 64% of Brazil's burned land has burned more than once Source: Infobae. Though national burned area in 2025 was 12.7 million hectares — 31% below the historical average — the Cerrado savanna continued to burn at similar rates Source: Euronews.

What's next

Experts caution that a potential 'super El Niño' could reverse gains. The NOAA forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming in summer 2026, with a one-in-three chance of a strong event Source: Euronews. If confirmed, it could prolong the dry season in the Amazon and spike fire risk in late 2026 and early 2027 Source: Infobae. President Lula, who pledged to end deforestation, has seen progress, but the battle is far from over.