El Niño intensifies, suppresses Atlantic hurricane season

The 2026 El Niño, declared in June, is intensifying and could become the strongest on record, potentially making 2027 the hottest year yet. El Niño's hallmark—increased wind shear—has already suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, with only one short-lived tropical storm so far, the quietest start since 2009 Source: CNN. Meanwhile, a rare Atlantic Niña is emerging off Africa's coast, further inhibiting storm formation Source: Gizmodo.

El Niño's strength

Climate models from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology project the El Niño peak anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region could exceed +3.0°C, surpassing the previous record of +2.6°C in 1983 Source: The Guardian. Dr. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth reviewed 14 models and called the forecasts "mind-blowing," noting they are "outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed" Source: The Guardian.

Atlantic impacts

El Niño-driven wind shear has been the second-highest on record for early July over the Caribbean, according to NOAA data Source: CNN. The Atlantic Niña, with sea surface temperatures 0.5°C below average, typically reduces tropical cyclone counts by 50% Source: Gizmodo. Together, these factors have led to below-normal hurricane predictions: 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes Source: Gizmodo.

What's next

Meteorologists caution that El Niño's strength does not guarantee extreme local impacts, but the combination of record ocean heat and a strong El Niño raises the likelihood of global temperature records . The hurricane season's peak months (August–October) will be closely watched for any shift in activity.