SpaceX Shares Fall Below IPO Price Amid Post-Debut Volatility

SpaceX shares fell below their $135 IPO price for the first time on July 15, 2026, reaching as low as $132.15. The decline marks a sharp reversal from the stock's peak of $225.64 on June 16, representing a roughly 40% drop from its all-time high Source: portafolioco. The company's historic IPO raised $85.7 billion (some reports say $86 billion) and was the largest in history Source: infobae; Source: larepublicaco.

Factors Behind the Drop

• Limited float: Less than 5% of SpaceX shares are available for trading, amplifying volatility Source: infobae.
• Lockup expirations: Early investors and employees face restrictions lifting after the Q2 earnings report in early August, potentially increasing supply Source: elconfidencial; Source: larepublicaco.
• Index inclusion: SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000, forcing passive funds to buy shares, but profit-taking followed Source: portafolioco; Source: larepublicaco.
• Profit concerns: Despite $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, the company posted a $4.94 billion loss, and valuation reached 45 times estimated 2026 sales Source: portafolioco.

Analyst Optimism vs. Market Reality

Despite the selloff, Wall Street remains bullish. Raymond James set a price target of $800, while Morgan Stanley targets $300 and UBS $210 Source: infobae. Over 80% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with an average target of $238, implying 78% upside Source: larepublicaco. Meanwhile, SpaceX is reportedly negotiating a multi-billion-dollar computing deal with the Pentagon, similar to existing contracts with Google and Anthropic Source: larepublicaco.