PSC leads but loses seats, Aliança surges past Junts in Catalan poll

The first barometer of 2026 from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of Catalonia, released on July 9, shows the PSC of Salvador Illa winning a hypothetical election but dropping from 42 to 36–38 seats, losing its comfortable majority Source: La Vanguardia. The biggest shock is the surge of Aliança Catalana, which would leap from 2 to 23–25 seats, becoming the third force and surpassing Junts, which plummets from 35 to 16–18 seats Source: ABC. ERC recovers to 24–26 seats, solidifying second place, while PP and Vox tie at 12–13 seats each Source: Infobae. Comuns and CUP both land at 4–5 seats Source: El Mundo.

Coalition arithmetic

The current left bloc (PSC, ERC, Comuns) holds exactly 68 seats, the absolute majority. Under the new projection, their combined high-end estimate is 69 seats, but the low end is 64, making a repeat majority uncertain without additional support Source: El Confidencial.

Context and caveats

The CEO survey was conducted from May 21 to June 25, with 2,000 interviews. Delay in publication—the first of 2026, normally due in early spring—was attributed to a framework renewal for polling firms. Analysts note that Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras remain affected by the non-application of the amnesty law, which may influence voters Source: El Español.