MIT Researcher Proposes Method to Detect Nuclear Weapons in Space

A researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has proposed the first peer-reviewed method to verify whether satellites carry nuclear weapons, a capability that does not currently exist despite the 1967 Outer Space Treaty banning such weapons. The proposal comes amid suspicions that Russia's Kosmos 2553 satellite, launched weeks before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, may contain components of a nuclear device.

The concern

Russia claims Kosmos 2553 is a research satellite, but U.S. officials have warned it could be testing a nuclear weapon. A nuclear detonation in low Earth orbit would release billions of high-energy electrons, potentially destroying hundreds of communication, GPS, and internet satellites Source: ABC. In 1962, the U.S. accidentally demonstrated this by detonating a 1.4-megaton thermonuclear warhead in space, damaging many early satellites Source: ABC.

The detection method

MIT physicist Areg Danagoulian's system, described in Nature, uses a small sensor satellite (e.g., a CubeSat) to detect neutrons emitted when high-energy protons from the Van Allen belts interact with nuclear materials like uranium. The sensor would orbit within 4 kilometers of a suspected satellite for about a week to achieve 99% detection accuracy. Using multiple sensors or closing to within 1 kilometer could reduce detection time to hours Source: Infobae. Danagoulian notes the study is a feasibility demonstration, not a fully tested system Source: Infobae. El Mundo quotes him comparing the neutron signature to smoke betraying a hidden fire Source: El Mundo.

What's next

Danagoulian hopes the research will prompt national laboratories and policymakers to develop verification mechanisms, pressuring nations to comply with the Outer Space Treaty Source: ABC. The method could provide a deterrent against violations, as countries would know attempts could be detected.