IMF Keeps Argentina Growth Forecast at 3.5% for 2026, Cuts Global Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its economic growth forecast for Argentina at 3.5% for 2026 and 4% for 2027, according to the July update of the World Economic Outlook. The global growth projection was slightly reduced to 3% for 2026, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation.

Argentina Outlook

Argentina's growth projection remained unchanged from April, despite a turbulent global environment. The IMF noted that the economy expanded 0.7% in the first quarter and expects acceleration driven by primary exports, investment, and construction. Source: clarin

• The IMF forecasts Argentina's inflation to fall to a single digit by end of 2028, aided by restrictive fiscal policy and improvements in the monetary framework. Source: infobae
• The government's budget estimates a 5% growth for 2026, while market analysts surveyed by the REM project 3%. Source: infobae

Global Context

The IMF trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3%, but raised the 2027 projection to 3.4%. Source: larepublicaco The revision reflects a divergence between energy exporters and tech-driven economies versus energy importers with limited tech participation. Source: larepublicaco

Inflation and Risks

Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before moderating to 3.9% in 2027, partly due to higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Source: larepublicaco For Argentina, the IMF sees inflation reaching 25% by end of 2026, with a gradual decline to single digits by 2028.