Iran ceasefire collapse sends oil surging, markets mixed

US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara, prompting a new wave of US airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, sending oil prices surging and global stocks mostly lower. Source: AP News, The Guardian

What happened

Trump told reporters the memorandum of understanding was 'over' and that the US would 'hit them hard tonight.' Source: Al Jazeera, Euronews US Central Command struck over 80 targets in Iran, including command-and-control networks and IRGC vessels, while Iran fired at US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Source: AP News, Al Jazeera The US also revoked a waiver allowing Iranian oil exports. Source: Euronews

Market reaction

• Oil prices jumped 4–6%, with Brent crude reaching two-week highs near $78-80/barrel. Source: CNA, Euronews The Strait of Hormuz saw reduced tanker crossings, reigniting supply fears. Source: AP News
• Asian stocks were mixed: Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.1% on Wednesday but rebounded 1.6% on Thursday. Source: Euronews, AP News South Korea's Kospi tumbled 5.4% before steadying. Source: Euronews, AP News
• European stocks fell: Germany's DAX lost 2.2%, France's CAC 40 dropped over 2%, and the FTSE 100 shed 1.5%. Source: Euronews
• US markets ended mixed: the Dow fell 1.09%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.28%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.2%, helped by chip stocks. Source: CNA, The Guardian

Broader implications

The IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3% due to the conflict and AI spending pressures. Source: The Guardian The Federal Reserve's minutes showed concern about rising inflation, with some officials indicating rates may need to increase. Source: CNA, The Guardian Travel stocks fell on higher fuel costs while energy stocks gained. Source: Al Jazeera