Panama faces up to 55% rain deficit as El Niño threatens Canal operations

Panama expects a rainfall deficit of up to 55% between July and December 2026 due to a strong El Niño event, according to the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Panama (IMHPA). Air temperatures could rise by 1–3°C, and more than 95% of international ENSO models predict the phenomenon will persist Source: infobae.

Canal measures

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has begun reducing the maximum draft for Neopanamax locks, from 50 feet to 49.5 feet as of July 3, with further cuts to 49 feet on July 24 and 48.5 feet on August 15. By April–May 2027, the draft is expected to drop to 44 feet (13.41 meters) Source: CNN. Ilya Espino de Marotta, the designated administrator, said the Canal is not currently planning to reduce daily transits, but that decision will be reevaluated in November Source: infobae. In 2023, a similar El Niño forced transit cuts to 22 per day.

Water and infrastructure challenges

June rainfall was 17% below average, and the Canal's water levels are already low. The ACP warns that climate change is making droughts more frequent, underscoring the urgency of the proposed Río Indio reservoir, which would take about four years to build Source: infobae. The Canal supplies drinking water to over half of Panama's population, complicating operational decisions.

• The IMHPA declared El Niño on May 12, 2026, and NOAA followed a month later Source: infobae.
• Canal transits have returned to 37 per day after peaking at 40–41 during the Strait of Hormuz crisis Source: CNN.