Brazil shifts from renewables to thermal plants to avoid blackouts

84% of Brazil's electricity comes from renewables, but the country is increasingly disconnecting wind and solar plants and planning to expand thermoelectric capacity to avoid blackouts Source: portafolioco. A critical incident occurred on June 29, when the national operator (ONS) had to disconnect 20 GW of renewable generation during a World Cup match, as demand dropped 21% Source: infobae.

Grid instability

The main challenge is oversupply peaks from renewables and small hydro plants connected directly to distributors without ONS supervision. "Se acerca un momento en el que puede ocurrir el colapso," warned Aneel director Fernando Mosna Source: infobae. In 2025, an average of 4,021 MW was curtailed, representing 20% of solar and wind production, costing $1.24 billion Source: portafolioco. Curtailments have driven away investors; since 2025, 992 solar project concessions have been returned, totaling over 43 GW and $31.6 billion in investments Source: portafolioco.

Response

The government's Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan approved June 6 increases thermal plants' share to 14% by 2035 (up two points) while reducing hydro's weight Source: portafolioco. The government also plans battery storage auctions in December, expected to generate $3.7 billion in investments. However, USP professor José Augusto Fontoura Costa calls batteries a "curita" (band-aid), questioning their economic sense Source: infobae. The solar association Absolar warned that the scenario "pone en peligro el papel protagonista de Brasil en la transición energética" Source: infobae.