Rightward shift among Latino voters in Spain decides tight races

The vote of Latino immigrants in Spain has proved decisive in recent presidential elections in Peru and Colombia, with a marked preference for right-wing candidates. Analysis by La Vanguardia shows that in Peru's second round, Keiko Fujimori won the presidency by a narrow margin, thanks to a 28,200-vote advantage in Spain, more than half her overall victory margin. Similarly, in Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella's win was secured by a small lead, with right-wing candidates performing better in Madrid than in Barcelona Source: lavanguardia.

The importance of the foreign vote has sparked fraud allegations from losing candidates. In Peru, Roberto Sánchez's party claimed a "sophisticated operation" to manipulate the overseas vote, while in Colombia, President Gustavo Petro initially refused to accept results, warning of "resistance" and alleging fraud Source: clarin. Both sets of allegations were rejected by electoral authorities, who certified the outcomes.

Despite the controversies, the trend of Latino immigrants leaning right is consistent across several countries. La Vanguardia reports that in Ecuador, Daniel Noboa won in both Madrid and Barcelona; in Argentina, Javier Milei dominated in Spain; and in Mexico, Xóchitl Gálvez outperformed in Madrid Source: lavanguardia. The Clarín article notes that the foreign vote has been historically claimed as a progressive achievement, yet its impact is unpredictable Source: clarin.

Key figures:

• Peru: Keiko Fujimori won by 49,641 votes; 28,200 came from Spain.
• Colombia: Abelardo de la Espriella won by ~250,000 votes; Madrid favored him by 7 points, Barcelona favored Iván Cepeda by 10 points.