Lula regains lead as Bolsonaro family feud deepens in Brazil

With three months until Brazil's presidential election on October 4, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has regained a 48.8% to 42.3% lead over his main rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a recent AtlasIntel poll. The shift comes amid a series of crises that have fractured the conservative bloc, most notably a public feud between Flávio and his stepmother, ex-first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

Family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro published videos accusing Flávio of humiliating and disrespecting her during a phone call, stating she was told to "stay out of party decisions because [she] had just arrived and knew nothing about politics" Source: emolcl. She subsequently resigned as president of the women's wing of the Partido Liberal (PL) and unfollowed Flávio's brothers on social media Source: mileniomx, elmundoes. Flávio apologized but the rift has deepened, with 64.1% of respondents in the AtlasIntel poll believing it weakens his candidacy Source: clarin.

Other controversies

Flávio's campaign has also been damaged by revelations that he sought funding from Banco Master, controlled by imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro, whom he called a "brother" Source: infobae. Additionally, commentator Paulo Figueiredo's remarks that women "don't know how to vote" amplified criticism within the right Source: clarin. Flávio's letter to the U.S. requesting tariff delays and advocating for Brazil to negotiate outside Mercosur allowed Lula to accuse the Bolsonaro family of "treason" Source: clarin.

With the right divided, Lula's campaign has gained momentum, though the race remains competitive.