Mexico Has 1.8% Chance to Win 2026 World Cup, Study Says

Mexico has just a 1.8% probability of winning the 2026 World Cup, according to an Opta Analyst simulation released on June 29. The study, which ran the tournament 25,000 times, ranks Mexico 13th among 16 major contenders. Source: Excelsior While the team's perfect group-stage record (nine points, wins over South Africa, South Korea, and Czech Republic) has fueled fan optimism, the statistical model gives it a 61.4% chance of reaching the round of 16, 28.3% for the quarterfinals, 12% for the semifinals, and only 5% to make the final. Source: Infobae

Favorites and Rivals

France leads the pack with an 18.7% chance of retaining the title, followed by Argentina (16.3%) and Spain (13.5%). Source: Excelsior Regional rival United States holds a 2.5% probability, ahead of Mexico's 1.8%. Source: Infobae

Next Challenge

Mexico now faces Ecuador in the round of 16, aiming to break a 40-year drought without a knockout-stage win. Source: Excelsior The team, coached by Javier Aguirre, has not lost a World Cup match on home soil since 1986.