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Toyota is projected to sell 1.25 million vehicles in the first half of 2026, up nearly 1% from a year ago, while General Motors is expected to fall 7.2% to 1.33 million, according to Cox Automotive Source: CNBC. That would leave a gap of just 83,255 vehicles, the narrowest since Toyota topped GM in 2021 Source: The Next Web.
Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough noted that "at these rates... Toyota could potentially overtake them as the top selling manufacturer" Source: CNBC, though he is not yet forecasting a full-year win. GM has been the US sales leader every year since 1931 except 2021 Source: La Republica.
The divergent trajectories reflect starkly different strategies. Toyota has long invested in hybrids and now offers hybrid versions of over 20 models Source: La Republica. GM, by contrast, bet heavily on all-electric vehicles and has only one hybrid (the Corvette E-Ray) Source: The Next Web. With EV sales projected to fall 23.3% in the first half Source: CNBC and hybrids rising about 10% Source: CNBC, GM's position is vulnerable.
Overall US new vehicle sales are expected to drop 3% . Among major automakers, Cox forecasts second-quarter gains for Honda, Volkswagen, and Stellantis, while Tesla, Ford, and GM are expected to see the largest declines .
“At these rates, and what we're seeing right now in the selling rates, GM may be looking over their shoulder here when we get to the year's end, that Toyota could potentially overtake them as the top selling manufacturer here in the U.S. market.”
“The projected difference of 83,255 vehicles marks the closest the two automakers have been since Toyota topped GM in annual US sales for the first time in 2021.”
“GM has maintained the top spot since surpassing Ford Motor Co. in 1931, losing to Toyota only once in 2021 due to semiconductor shortages.”
“Cox expects overall U.S. new vehicle sales to be down 3% through the first half of the year compared to last year, including a 0.5% decline during the second quarter.”