Bessent predicts 3% GDP growth this year; prediction markets disagree

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted Wednesday that U.S. GDP growth could reach 3% before the end of 2026, but traders on prediction market Kalshi see only a 14.2% chance of that happening.

The prediction

Bessent said in a CNBC interview, "We can have something with a three in front of it this year," adding that "the underlying economy has been strong." He reiterated confidence in his "3-3-3" plan: 3% growth, cutting the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, and boosting oil production by 3 million barrels per day. He attributed potential growth to the nearing conclusion of the U.S.-Iran war and expected monetary policy under new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, whom Trump has "full confidence" in. Source: CNBC

Market skepticism

Kalshi traders give only 14.2% odds that 2026 GDP growth falls between 2.6% and 3.0%; they see higher probability for 2.1%–2.5% growth. Source: CNBC A separate Kalshi contract on the deficit-to-GDP ratio falling below 5% in fiscal 2026 has just 13% odds. Source: CNBC

Economic context

First-quarter 2026 GDP grew at an annualized 1.6%, following 0.5% in Q4 2025. Full-year 2025 growth was 2.1%. Inflation remains elevated: the CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month in May, pushing the annual rate to 4.2% — the largest three-year increase. Source: Infobae The deficit-to-GDP ratio was 5.8% in 2025, and the budget deficit stands at $1.25 trillion for the first eight months of fiscal 2026. Bessent acknowledged that reaching 3% growth will require easing inflation and labor market moderation. Source: Infobae