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The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are massing around the strategic Sudanese city of el-Obeid, prompting international warnings of an imminent offensive and potential mass atrocities. The UN Security Council, the US, and seven European countries have flagged the risk, citing the possibility of a repeat of the 2025 siege of el-Fasher that killed over 6,000 people and bore the 'hallmarks of genocide' Source: AP News.
El-Obeid, a city of about 500,000 in North Kordofan, sits at a crossroads linking Khartoum, central Sudan, and the western Darfur region. It houses a large military base and airfield, and serves as a logistics hub for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). If the RSF captures it, they could use it as a forward base for drone operations, especially as the rainy season limits drone range Source: DW. The RSF has been launching drone strikes on the city, destroying infrastructure and causing fuel and water shortages Source: Infobae.
While some experts see the RSF buildup as a tactical move to gain advantage over the depleted SAF, others note it could lead to reprisal killings against those perceived as allied with the military, but not necessarily ethnically motivated genocide as in el-Fasher Source: AP News. The RSF has not commented on their plans.
Seven European foreign ministers jointly warned of 'reliable indications of an imminent offensive' and called for de-escalation, humanitarian access, and adherence to international law Source: Infobae. The UN stressed: 'We must not allow the horrors of El Fasher to be repeated in El Obeid' Source: AP News. The US and UK have echoed these concerns, urging restraint.
“"If the RSF managed to retake el-Obeid, they would not only profit from its urban infrastructure and lucrative gum arabic trade but they could also use the city as a strategic forward operating base for launching drones."”
“"We must not allow the horrors of El Fasher to be repeated in El Obeid," a spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.”
“"Actualmente hay indicios fiables de una ofensiva inminente" de las RSF contra El Obeid, y han hecho un llamamiento al resto de la comunidad internacional para que actúe ante lo que han calificado de "momento crítico".”
“"This is not a genocidal move, it’s a tactical one," Raymond said, warning of possible reprisal killings for those who are seen as allied with the military if the RSF retakes el-Obeid.”