T-MEC to remain in force at least 10 more years, says Ebrard

The review of the USMCA (T-MEC) enters a decisive phase on July 1, when the three nations will submit a joint letter determining the agreement's future. Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard has assured that the treaty will remain in force for at least 10 more years, as no party has filed a withdrawal notice.

Two scenarios

Ebrard stated that the July 1 letter will signal whether the treaty extends for 16 years with periodic reviews, as Mexico wants, or continues for 10 years with annual reviews. He described the 10-year option as the "worst scenario" Source: EFE via Infobae, while other reports emphasize that continuity is guaranteed regardless Source: Milenio. The US has reportedly indicated it does not contemplate an automatic 16-year extension Source: La Jornada.

Key points

• The virtual meeting will include Ebrard, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Canadian officials.
• A second in-person round with the US is scheduled in Mexico for the week of July 20.
• Ebrard noted that 85% of Mexico-US trade is tariff-free, contrasting with earlier threats of 25% tariffs.
• Challenges include defining rules of origin for complex products like robots and drones, and providing investment certainty under annual reviews Source: Milenio.

The negotiations are described as complex and likely contentious, with experts calling it the most difficult commercial negotiation in 37 years Source: Heraldo de México.