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Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) is monitoring two low-pressure systems in the Pacific Ocean that could strengthen into hurricanes in the coming days. The first system, located southwest of Baja California Sur, has a 50% chance of cyclonic development within 48 hours and over seven days, while a second system forming off Jalisco and Colima has a 60% probability over seven days Source: Mexico News Daily. If they reach tropical storm strength, they would be named Douglas and Elida Source: Excélsior.
Because the systems are within 1,400 km of each other, they could interact via the Fujiwhara Effect, where two storms rotate around a common center. This could lead to the stronger storm absorbing the weaker one, or both orbiting each other before separating Source: Mexico News Daily. The phenomenon complicates trajectory predictions Source: Heraldo de México.
Both systems are over warm waters, favoring intensification. Heavy rains and heatwaves are already forecast for several states, including Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán Source: Excélsior. However, no direct landfall has been predicted yet, and Conagua has not confirmed a Fujiwhara scenario Source: Heraldo de México.
“The SMN also identified the imminent formation of a second low-pressure area in the same region, with a higher cyclonic development probability of of 60% for the next seven days.”
“La primera perturbación se ubica a 660 kilómetros al suroeste de Playa Pérula, Jalisco, y se desplaza al oeste-noroeste a una velocidad de entre 16 y 24 kilómetros por hora, con 40 por ciento de probabilidad para desarrollo ciclónico a 48 horas.”
“La Conagua no ha confirmado un posible efecto Fujiwhara en el Pacífico, sin embargo, si ambos se fortalecen se convertirían en las tormentas Douglas y Elida”